What 535 Rolex buyers say about allocation
Every waitlist thread gives the same advice: build purchase history first. We checked it against the reports. Of Rolex buyers who got a watch in the last 12 months and told us their history, 379 of 535 had no prior purchase at that dealer. Spend is not irrelevant, but it does not predict how fast the call comes on its own. The new guide breaks it down by brand, with counts, including the brands where we still do not have enough to say anything.
Also new: every Oyster Perpetual reference now has its own page, and you can tell us which dial you got.
See it: https://www.unghosted.io/guides/how-watch-allocation-works
Headline
Typical wait is the middle report in the last 12 months. Completed reports set the median. Still-waiting reports sit beside that count and are not in it. Below 10 completed reports we show the count and no typical wait.
| Brand | Typical wait | Completed | Still waiting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 1-3 months | 795 | 14 |
| Patek Philippe | 1-3 months | 13 | 0 |
| Audemars Piguet | 1-3 months | 38 | 1 |
| Tudor | Walk-in / same day | 12 | 1 |
| Vacheron Constantin | 1-3 months | 66 | 1 |
| F.P. Journe | Too few to quote | 7 | 0 |
| A. Lange & Sohne | Too few to quote | 3 | 0 |
Rexhep Rexhepi (4 all-time) had no reports in the last 12 months.
Rolex families
Same 12-month window as the brand line. The typical wait is the middle report for that family.
| Family | Typical wait | Reports |
|---|---|---|
| Submariner | 1-3 months | 183 completed, 6 still waiting |
| GMT-Master II | 3-6 months | 118 completed, 2 still waiting |
| Cosmograph Daytona | 1-3 to 3-6 months | 26 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Datejust | 1-3 months | 205 completed, 3 still waiting |
| Explorer | 1-3 months | 110 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Sky-Dweller | 3-6 to 6-12 months | 22 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Day-Date | Too few to quote | 8 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Air-King | Under 1 month | 20 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Oyster Perpetual | 3-6 months. Oyster Perpetual mixes 28mm to 41mm. | 46 completed, 2 still waiting |
| Yacht-Master | 1-3 months | 22 completed, 1 still waiting |
| Sea-Dweller | 1-3 months | 14 completed, 0 still waiting |
| Land-Dweller | 3-6 months | 13 completed, 0 still waiting |
Movers
Families and references whose typical bucket changed since last month's report. Sample size is the current 12-month completed count.
| Watch | Was | Now | Reports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126610LN | 1-3 months | 1-3 to 3-6 months | 54 |
| 126710GRNR | 1-3 months | 1-3 to 3-6 months | 20 |
126610LN: typical wait moved from 1-3 months to the line between 1-3 and 3-6 months (54 reports). A few reports either way will move it.
126710GRNR: typical wait moved from 1-3 months to the line between 1-3 and 3-6 months (20 reports). A few reports either way will move it.
Walk-in share
Walk-in or same-day share, only where the wait pool is at least 40 reports. Below that we omit the row.
Datejust: 47 of 205 reports were walk-in or same-day (23%).
Explorer: 32 of 110 reports were walk-in or same-day (29%).
GMT-Master II: 19 of 118 reports were walk-in or same-day (16%).
Oyster Perpetual: 7 of 46 reports were walk-in or same-day (15%).
Submariner: 35 of 183 reports were walk-in or same-day (19%).
Vacheron Constantin Overseas: 10 of 52 reports were walk-in or same-day (19%).
New this month
Now at 10 reports or more: 124300 (10 reports).
No reference dropped below the 10-report floor this month.
What we still cannot answer
These have reports, but not enough in the last 12 months to quote a typical wait. All-time count is shown beside the 12-month count.
| Brand | Scope | Kind | Last 12 months | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 126613LB | reference | 7 | 29 |
| Tudor | Black Bay | family | 7 | 23 |
| Rolex | 126710BLRO | reference | 0 | 21 |
| Vacheron Constantin | 7920V | reference | 7 | 19 |
| Rolex | 126600 | reference | 5 | 15 |
| Vacheron Constantin | 4000V | reference | 5 | 13 |
| Rolex | 126331 | reference | 4 | 11 |
| F.P. Journe | F.P. Journe | brand | 7 | 11 |
| Rolex | Sky-Dweller steel and white gold previous generation · 326934 326934 | reference | 5 | 11 |
| Rolex | 278274 | reference | 5 | 10 |
| Rolex | 126333 | reference | 6 | 10 |
| Patek Philippe | Nautilus | family | 2 | 10 |
Most asked since the last report: a. lange (19 searches); royal (5 searches); cubitus (5 searches).
Intake
107 new reports in September (27 submitted directly, 80 from recent posts), plus 335 older reports added from past megathreads. 2,077 published all-time.
Methodology
Every typical wait is the middle report of the last 12 months, from self-reported buyer reports.